Ryan Wilson: Good injury news and a goalie choice that sends a message Good injury news and a goalie choice that sends a message

Tanev's rate of production continues to climb every season. He isn't a regular old bottom 6 role player. Also, Seattle is selling something not just building something. Tanev plays the type of hockey that even the newest fan would get excited over. It's not just production and value, it's marketing. A new team would benefit from a guy like him.
- burgh4life87


Tanev is a Burkie kind of player. He's truculent personified. I think Seattle would snap him up for sure.

Gotta say... The Pens miss him right now. His PK work and relentless puck pursuit. I really enjoy watching him play.

Solid post, RW.

Tanev's rate of production continues to climb every season. He isn't a regular old bottom 6 role player. Also, Seattle is selling something not just building something. Tanev plays the type of hockey that even the newest fan would get excited over. It's not just production and value, it's marketing. A new team would benefit from a guy like him.
- burgh4life87

His rate of production has not climbed every season. It dipped pretty significantly last season. Tanev’s 5v5 pts/60 rates and shooting percentage since he started getting regular NHL minutes:

16/17: 0.5, 3.7%
17/18: 1.4, 10.1
18/19: 1.5, 11.0%
19/20: 1.2, 11.6%
20/21: 1.6, 16.3%

Two important things: 1) players scoring primes fall between aged 24-27. 2)From the data it can be reasonably assumed that Tanev’s normal shooting no percentage is somewhere in the 10-11% rage (which is actually pretty good and unexpected from a player in Tanev’s mold).

During his scoring prime, Tanev put up 1.4 and 1.5 pts/60 on his normal shooting percentage, which is pretty good relative to his role. Last year in his first post-scoring prime year he posted 1.2 pts/60 shooting in the high range of his normal shooting percentage. That is decidedly not good, and when you experience a significant decline in production rates while maintaining your normal shooting levels, that’s typically indicative of decline.

This year, Tanev is putting up 1.6 pts/60, which is great, but he’s also shooting way above his typical percentage, which is not sustainable in the long run. With a normalized shooting percentage, it’s likely Tanev’s scoring rates are closer to last year than they are to what he was doing in his two prime years like it is now. There is certainly cause for concern in these numbers that Tanev is already in scoring decline and could be really bad value in two years.

His rate of production has not climbed every season. It dipped pretty significantly last season. Tanev’s 5v5 pts/60 rates and shooting percentage since he started getting regular NHL minutes:

16/17: 0.5, 3.7%
17/18: 1.4, 10.1
18/19: 1.5, 11.0%
19/20: 1.2, 11.6%
20/21: 1.6, 16.3%

Two important things: 1) players scoring primes fall between aged 24-27. 2)From the data it can be reasonably assumed that Tanev’s normal shooting no percentage is somewhere in the 10-11% rage (which is actually pretty good and unexpected from a player in Tanev’s mold).

During his scoring prime, Tanev put up 1.4 and 1.5 pts/60 on his normal shooting percentage, which is pretty good relative to his role. Last year in his first post-scoring prime year he posted 1.2 pts/60 shooting in the high range of his normal shooting percentage. That is decidedly not good, and when you experience a significant decline in production rates while maintaining your normal shooting levels, that’s typically indicative of decline.

This year, Tanev is putting up 1.6 pts/60, which is great, but he’s also shooting way above his typical percentage, which is not sustainable in the long run. With a normalized shooting percentage, it’s likely Tanev’s scoring rates are closer to last year than they are to what he was doing in his two prime years like it is now. There is certainly cause for concern in these numbers that Tanev is already in scoring decline and could be really bad value in two years.
- Victoro311

I deleted my long post just to say his all strength production went from 1.4, 1.54,1.49, to 2.08. That slight dip last year equates to just 1 point in 1,200 minutes. His dramatic defensive role has a direct causation to his dip in individual scoring chances and shots. He starts 25% of his zone starts in the O zone. That's a production killer.

Also, the prime scoring age thing is very misleading. That prime age for scoring is the highest populated age group in the NHL. If you produce through your late 20's at a consistent rate you are more likely to maintain that through age 33/34. Then it drops off in an ugly fashion

His all strength production:
.44
1.4
1.54
1.49
2.08
That "dip" in production is 1 point over the course of 1,200 minutes. His overall growth and rate of production has climbed through his short career.

Also, that prime rate of production is rather misleading. Mostly because of the sheer volume of players in the NHL that are aged 22 to 28. The players who maintain or even increase production through their late 20's are much more likely to continue to maintain that rate of production until their age 33/34 season (where they then fall off a cliff and the total amount of players drops to half that of those age 24-25).

Tanev has seen a slight dip in shooting, ICF, ISCF and IHDCF, but that can also be attributed to his dramatic defensive role on the Penguins. If you take into consideration his 25% offensive zone starts compared to 43% in Winnipeg, or even his 36% last year, you give him a better chance at generating those scoring chances. Basically, we are forcing him into one of the most demanding defensive roles in hockey and he isn't just matching production, he is increasing.
- burgh4life87

I think I buy the argument that his Uber defensive role plays a part in last year’s dip. However, I don’t love looking at his all situations production because for a player like Tanev that isn’t getting reliable PP time where a player can reasonably expect to find consistent scoring, scoring on, say, the PK is subject to a lot of statistical randomization that isn’t sustainable in the long run. For example, last year, Tanev was our leading empty net point producer with 3G, 2A, 5P coming against the empty net, which accounts for the majority of boosting that 1.2 up to a 1.5 pts/60. For the record, that’s why the 5v5 and Even Strengths numbers differ so much when looking at these scoring rates since empty net situations are considered even strength.

So when arguing whether or not Tanev dipped last year or not, it basically comes down to philosophy of how much you value empty net production. I personally don’t put a lot of stock in it since the probability of scoring when the goalie gets pulled Sky rockets (posted those probabilities a while back, they were pretty cool). But I’m also not going to argue against people that take the stance that a goal is a goal. I get that.

This year is way more straight forward. 17% shooting is outrageous and will eventually come down. But overall I do get that Tanev doing what he’s doing on extremely defensive deployment is valuable, and personally I do actually like him a lot. He’s not the first, second, or third guy I’d look to get rid of on this roster. But I do think it’s very possible that in two years he could be a $1.5 mil guy playing on a $3.5 mil contract, which is my point of why I highly doubt Seattle would take him.

I think I buy the argument that his Uber defensive role plays a part in last year’s dip. However, I don’t love looking at his all situations production because for a player like Tanev that isn’t getting reliable PP time where a player can reasonably expect to find consistent scoring, scoring on, say, the PK is subject to a lot of statistical randomization that isn’t sustainable in the long run. For example, last year, Tanev was our leading empty net point producer with 3G, 2A, 5P coming against the empty net, which accounts for the majority of boosting that 1.2 up to a 1.5 pts/60. For the record, that’s why the 5v5 and Even Strengths numbers differ so much when looking at these scoring rates since empty net situations are considered even strength.

So when arguing whether or not Tanev dipped last year or not, it basically comes down to philosophy of how much you value empty net production. I personally don’t put a lot of stock in it since the probability of scoring when the goalie gets pulled Sky rockets (posted those probabilities a while back, they were pretty cool). But I’m also not going to argue against people that take the stance that a goal is a goal. I get that.

This year is way more straight forward. 17% shooting is outrageous and will eventually come down. But overall I do get that Tanev doing what he’s doing on extremely defensive deployment is valuable, and personally I do actually like him a lot. He’s not the first, second, or third guy I’d look to get rid of on this roster. But I do think it’s very possible that in two years he could be a $1.5 mil guy playing on a $3.5 mil contract, which is my point of why I highly doubt Seattle would take him.
- Victoro311

What's funny is I'm the opposite. For a guy like Tanev who isn't a PP player, I love using the all situations production. I like to use 5v5 for players who produce on the power play in order to analyze where their production is coming from. Take Rust for example. He is crushing the empty net points and power play, but his 5v5 production is way down.

But, what makes a player like Tanev valuable is that he consistently produces in those situations. He has 3 shorthanded points a season for the last 3 seasons. (2 this year prior to injury). His speed makes him a great threat for empty net production and PK production.

We won't ever agree on this lol but I think he would be a great pick for them and if we expose him I would put money down on him getting selected.

What's funny is I'm the opposite. For a guy like Tanev who isn't a PP player, I love using the all situations production. I like to use 5v5 for players who produce on the power play in order to analyze where their production is coming from. Take Rust for example. He is crushing the empty net points and power play, but his 5v5 production is way down.

But, what makes a player like Tanev valuable is that he consistently produces in those situations. He has 3 shorthanded points a season for the last 3 seasons. (2 this year prior to injury). His speed makes him a great threat for empty net production and PK production.

We won't ever agree on this lol but I think he would be a great pick for them and if we expose him I would put money down on him getting selected.
- burgh4life87

Yeah I'm worried about him. Everyone in that top line is below their mean in even strength production, but especially him. I don't know how much of that is that we've mostly been a one-line time due to Malkin's early season dysfunction and then injury so opposing teams can just put all their energy into stopping the Crosby line and dare Mark Jankowski to score, but its something that needs to improve if we hope to do anything in the playoffs.

His rate of production has not climbed every season. It dipped pretty significantly last season. Tanev’s 5v5 pts/60 rates and shooting percentage since he started getting regular NHL minutes:

16/17: 0.5, 3.7%
17/18: 1.4, 10.1
18/19: 1.5, 11.0%
19/20: 1.2, 11.6%
20/21: 1.6, 16.3%

Two important things: 1) players scoring primes fall between aged 24-27. 2)From the data it can be reasonably assumed that Tanev’s normal shooting no percentage is somewhere in the 10-11% rage (which is actually pretty good and unexpected from a player in Tanev’s mold).

During his scoring prime, Tanev put up 1.4 and 1.5 pts/60 on his normal shooting percentage, which is pretty good relative to his role. Last year in his first post-scoring prime year he posted 1.2 pts/60 shooting in the high range of his normal shooting percentage. That is decidedly not good, and when you experience a significant decline in production rates while maintaining your normal shooting levels, that’s typically indicative of decline.

This year, Tanev is putting up 1.6 pts/60, which is great, but he’s also shooting way above his typical percentage, which is not sustainable in the long run. With a normalized shooting percentage, it’s likely Tanev’s scoring rates are closer to last year than they are to what he was doing in his two prime years like it is now. There is certainly cause for concern in these numbers that Tanev is already in scoring decline and could be really bad value in two years.
- Victoro311

I know you admitted defensive role played a part later, but I'd also suggest his linemates did too. Since his shooting percentage didn't drop, the problem wasn't his own goal scoring ability, so his assists were down. He played with 2 guys who were in the 1st full year in the NHL and probably focused more on learning to be shut down players at this level.

Plus ZAR couldn't bury a puck last year to save his life. Blueger also didn't display as much offense. Both have taken a step forward.

That being said, I don't disagree with you that that contract is only getting worse as we likely got 2 of the best years out of it already. I can't see Seattle taking him unless it's partly to get to the cap floor. I think I we'll be giving them a better option.

Yeah I'm worried about him. Everyone in that top line is below their mean in even strength production, but especially him. I don't know how much of that is that we've mostly been a one-line time due to Malkin's early season dysfunction and then injury so opposing teams can just put all their energy into stopping the Crosby line and dare Mark Jankowski to score, but its something that needs to improve if we hope to do anything in the playoffs.
- Victoro311

Hey we agree! I think he will improve more and more. That Carter line has already taken some of the pressure off and the return of Malkin and Kap will do the same.

5v5 scoring are nice stats to look at, but they really aren't the end all for player production at ES. The Pens top two forwards at G/60 5v5 are Zucker and Sceviour. Anyone feel those are our 2 most dangerous goal scorers at ES?

Aside. Zucker does have 7 ES goals in 28 gp, a nice 20 ES goal pace. But just 3 ES assists and a PDO of .955. There is a lot of reason to think he can produce more.

Kapanen draws back in.

Do we want to take bets on when Kap will be swapped with Zucker?

Do we want to take bets on when Kap will be swapped with Zucker?
- Rinosaur

I would, but Sully made it pretty obvious he was going to do this with Kap to get him up to speed. Also, I think Sully wants to keep that 3rd line together to create chemistry moving forward. Kap will probably get a few extra shifts with that line, but probably wont replace Zucker.

Well that's the start you want to see.

Carter can flat out fly.

Hit that kid Pettersson.

Petts is too much a wiener to play the body. Sid has had a lot of looks though.

Si Si!

Good screen

Do we want to take bets on when Kap will be swapped with Zucker?
- Rinosaur

Looks like Kap swapped with ERod.

Looks like Kap swapped with ERod.
- Tojo.

I saw that, but did you see ERod after that? I feel like didn't play much towards the end of the period.

EDIT: ERod played the least of any player. I wonder if he's hurt or something.

Carter can flat out fly.
- Rinosaur

My biggest worry was that he had lost a step. He looks just as fast as ever.

I saw that, but did you see ERod after that? I feel like didn't play much towards the end of the period.

EDIT: ERod played the least of any player. I wonder if he's hurt or something.
- Rinosaur

Ugh, that seems very Penguiny.

How y'all doin tonight?... I got home and turned on tv right as Ceci buried that and then hopped in shower...now hopefully ready for two periods of power.